* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 104 106 106 104 93 77 59 42 28 24 20 V (KT) LAND 95 100 104 106 106 104 93 77 59 42 28 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 95 100 103 103 101 93 79 62 46 33 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 6 6 12 20 27 43 42 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 2 1 0 6 12 3 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 215 196 191 205 215 222 215 232 253 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 27.9 26.5 25.5 24.7 23.7 23.4 23.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 144 129 118 109 97 91 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 66 66 64 60 56 47 37 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 18 21 20 17 14 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -15 -6 -14 -20 -53 -34 -1 -14 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 68 70 71 65 81 82 48 -4 -25 -31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -1 -3 1 3 6 7 9 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 892 934 993 1051 1110 1166 1189 1125 1016 965 978 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.6 19.0 20.5 22.0 22.5 22.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.6 115.9 117.2 118.4 120.5 122.0 122.7 122.8 122.6 122.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 5 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 23 26 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -14. -22. -29. -35. -39. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 5. 1. -3. -8. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 11. 9. -2. -18. -36. -53. -67. -71. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.5 113.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.14 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.31 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.54 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 469.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.24 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 27.2% 32.0% 24.6% 18.8% 17.8% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 16.2% 33.2% 17.5% 11.8% 7.3% 3.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 18.7% 18.4% 10.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 20.7% 27.9% 17.5% 11.6% 9.0% 6.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##