* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 111 114 115 114 102 88 70 50 37 24 20 17 V (KT) LAND 105 111 114 115 114 102 88 70 50 37 24 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 113 113 109 96 77 59 43 31 24 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 6 8 17 19 31 37 37 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 2 -1 6 12 13 1 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 136 181 174 207 215 225 228 252 254 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.2 27.6 26.2 25.4 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 147 140 125 116 108 101 97 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 64 65 65 65 61 57 50 43 36 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 20 21 19 19 17 12 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -17 -9 -10 -14 -28 -54 -8 -15 -13 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 78 70 69 61 84 49 9 -24 -32 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 1 5 6 4 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 943 991 1053 1113 1150 1182 1171 1098 1025 993 993 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.9 19.3 20.5 21.3 21.7 21.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.7 116.9 118.1 119.2 121.0 122.0 122.3 122.2 122.2 122.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 24 29 31 29 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -21. -31. -39. -45. -49. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -9. -12. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 10. 9. -3. -17. -35. -55. -68. -81. -85. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.5 114.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 5.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.03 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.54 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 523.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.16 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 29.3% 22.7% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.3% 19.9% 10.7% 8.5% 4.9% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 26.5% 10.1% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.0% 19.8% 12.6% 8.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##