* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 120 118 112 98 78 57 40 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 120 120 118 112 98 78 57 40 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 115 118 116 110 103 83 64 46 33 24 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 4 8 8 10 17 28 37 35 38 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 0 0 9 12 6 1 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 175 166 184 206 219 218 239 252 251 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.8 25.8 25.0 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 146 139 132 121 111 103 98 96 96 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 64 63 61 57 53 45 38 34 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 22 21 21 19 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -8 -8 -14 -16 -40 -25 4 -17 -14 -30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 90 71 50 69 75 18 -16 -16 -24 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 1 1 4 8 4 5 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1014 1072 1141 1157 1184 1198 1159 1084 1016 1000 1023 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.6 20.1 21.1 21.6 21.8 21.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.1 118.3 119.3 120.3 121.8 122.7 122.8 122.4 122.4 122.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 6 4 2 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 30 35 28 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -18. -30. -41. -50. -57. -61. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 3. -3. -17. -37. -58. -75. -88. -98.-101.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.6 115.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 597.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 8.6% 4.5% 3.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 21.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.5% 3.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##