* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 135 135 129 118 97 70 49 36 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 130 135 135 129 118 97 70 49 36 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 130 131 125 115 103 80 59 42 31 24 20 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 9 14 19 30 33 29 27 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 2 6 12 13 -1 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 151 171 209 214 227 226 244 234 234 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.2 25.4 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.2 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 139 132 125 116 107 102 102 102 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 60 59 56 51 42 35 31 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 23 20 20 17 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -18 -18 -24 -33 -50 -11 -10 -2 -11 -21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 70 46 66 80 47 14 -9 -7 -3 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -3 1 1 2 5 4 1 5 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1076 1129 1163 1175 1198 1188 1118 1085 1078 1091 1127 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.9 19.3 20.5 21.0 21.0 21.3 21.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.3 119.4 120.3 121.2 122.2 122.6 122.7 122.6 123.1 124.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 1 1 4 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 33 27 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -16. -31. -45. -57. -67. -74. -78. -79. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -7. -5. -6. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -2. -8. -12. -16. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. -1. -12. -33. -60. -81. -94.-105.-114.-117.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.9 117.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 714.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##