* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 130 126 115 104 79 53 37 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 130 130 126 115 104 79 53 37 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 130 127 117 105 93 71 51 38 29 23 20 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 15 18 24 31 30 29 31 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 5 7 13 6 -1 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 171 193 216 230 221 237 242 238 238 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 139 132 125 120 113 107 104 103 102 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 57 54 52 46 38 32 30 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 21 22 19 14 11 8 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -24 -32 -46 -29 -5 -4 5 -8 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 63 60 60 75 47 3 -11 -16 19 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 0 1 4 4 6 4 4 9 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1147 1163 1191 1194 1205 1186 1125 1100 1107 1122 1144 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.7 20.5 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.4 120.4 121.1 121.8 122.6 122.7 122.8 123.1 123.6 124.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 3 2 2 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 27 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -13. -20. -34. -48. -60. -69. -75. -80. -81. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -12. -9. -7. -8. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -11. -16. -20. -23. -24. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -15. -26. -51. -77. -93.-105.-113.-120.-123.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.2 118.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 821.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##