* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 116 104 90 77 54 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 116 104 90 77 54 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 125 115 102 90 79 59 43 32 25 21 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 24 24 29 36 33 31 31 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 8 6 9 13 0 -3 -5 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 202 217 227 236 227 245 244 241 236 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.5 24.0 23.7 23.7 23.5 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 130 124 120 115 106 99 95 94 93 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 53 52 49 40 31 27 25 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 22 20 18 16 11 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -22 -33 -49 -53 -5 -13 3 -8 -20 -45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 56 61 72 64 31 0 -7 4 18 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -1 2 4 3 6 8 4 7 7 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1183 1198 1222 1212 1204 1101 1031 1001 1001 987 944 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.8 21.6 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.6 121.5 122.0 122.5 122.7 122.6 122.6 122.7 122.7 122.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 6 3 2 0 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -14. -21. -36. -49. -60. -69. -74. -78. -79. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -11. -14. -17. -20. -18. -14. -12. -13. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -22. -26. -29. -29. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -21. -35. -48. -71. -92.-104.-113.-120.-123.-126.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.7 119.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 824.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##