* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 71 56 43 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 71 56 43 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 73 63 54 46 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 31 36 40 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 10 3 2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 243 235 235 240 249 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.1 24.5 24.0 23.5 22.7 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 114 107 102 96 88 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 45 40 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 16 15 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -62 -43 -20 3 -13 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 30 41 22 26 -13 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 7 6 10 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1189 1152 1101 1027 956 800 647 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.6 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.4 122.7 122.6 122.4 121.5 120.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -21. -29. -33. -36. -38. -39. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -22. -24. -27. -30. -33. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -14. -29. -42. -54. -73. -84. -87. -89. -91. -92. -94. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.0 122.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 661.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##