* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 60 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 60 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 64 54 46 39 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 28 39 40 41 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 14 5 0 -4 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 223 234 241 247 254 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.3 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 108 102 97 91 84 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 43 38 36 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 15 13 12 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -44 -18 -3 -12 -17 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 40 25 19 5 -20 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 11 13 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1177 1105 1038 952 867 691 512 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.4 23.1 24.4 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 122.7 122.7 122.3 121.9 120.8 119.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -25. -28. -29. -30. -31. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -26. -31. -36. -40. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -7. -5. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -4. -3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -15. -30. -43. -54. -70. -83. -87. -90. -93. -93. -95. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.8 122.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 620.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##