* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 47 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 47 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 49 41 34 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 44 43 41 39 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 3 -3 -6 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 235 241 250 252 265 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.9 23.4 22.9 22.5 21.8 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 101 96 90 86 79 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 45 40 36 32 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 10 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -12 0 -10 -10 -19 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 26 26 16 -7 -8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 14 19 6 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1115 1042 972 884 797 636 515 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.2 23.9 25.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 122.9 122.7 122.2 121.7 120.7 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -10. -14. -19. -27. -36. -44. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -7. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -25. -35. -44. -59. -74. -83. -91. -97.-101.-103.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.9 123.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 493.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##