* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTEST AL692016 11/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 27 28 28 27 26 27 27 26 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 27 28 28 27 26 27 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 28 35 33 24 34 37 31 22 31 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 4 4 -2 3 0 -3 -2 -3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 296 241 224 213 213 262 276 289 285 291 294 290 298 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 25.9 25.2 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 131 129 118 108 104 102 103 105 106 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 126 125 126 126 115 98 91 88 90 91 92 94 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -55.2 -55.9 -56.7 -57.6 -57.7 -57.8 -57.6 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 65 62 58 54 41 30 25 26 31 35 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 27 42 60 68 75 -41 -54 -30 -33 -18 -25 -6 200 MB DIV 101 92 70 60 26 1 32 15 -10 -13 0 -4 -34 700-850 TADV 35 13 -10 -15 -17 2 19 6 0 -8 -9 -11 -10 LAND (KM) 1560 1593 1665 1836 2080 2350 2164 1966 1827 1723 1675 1666 1665 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.3 22.7 24.1 25.3 27.6 29.1 29.5 29.2 28.2 27.1 26.1 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.8 50.4 49.1 47.0 41.7 37.0 34.7 33.3 32.6 32.5 32.7 32.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 16 20 24 27 15 8 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 18 17 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1134 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -6. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -4. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 50.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL692016 NEWTEST 11/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL692016 NEWTEST 11/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL692016 NEWTEST 11/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 25 27 28 28 27 26 27 27 26 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 25 26 26 25 24 25 25 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 21 22 22 21 20 21 21 20 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT