* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TINA EP212016 11/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 37 35 34 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 226 229 234 236 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 156 154 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 41 39 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 -8 -10 -6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 3 0 -13 -8 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 431 438 435 436 443 499 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.0 110.4 110.9 111.3 112.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 14 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -12. -21. -32. -39. -44. -44. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -12. -16. -21. -27. -33. -37. -40. -39. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.9 109.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212016 TINA 11/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 54.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212016 TINA 11/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##