* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 71 73 77 73 67 63 62 63 65 65 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 71 73 77 56 45 41 41 42 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 69 70 73 56 46 46 46 45 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 11 12 11 16 22 25 25 20 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 1 4 8 7 SHEAR DIR 136 151 151 123 116 119 133 135 125 125 115 108 89 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.7 28.1 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 150 152 154 147 139 138 146 152 154 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 144 147 149 151 146 140 139 144 152 160 153 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 66 67 69 70 74 75 74 71 65 67 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 20 15 11 8 10 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 51 63 64 66 62 62 61 46 48 28 8 -6 -7 200 MB DIV 68 86 109 104 61 64 61 45 61 65 80 77 65 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 1 1 6 10 9 10 8 5 1 LAND (KM) 111 135 163 212 196 85 -55 83 311 412 463 559 695 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 10.8 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.9 80.2 80.8 81.5 82.9 84.4 86.6 89.1 91.1 92.2 94.3 97.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 7 7 9 12 11 7 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 37 35 35 31 24 3 12 4 6 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -5. -11. -15. -14. -14. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 8. 2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.6 79.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.79 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.53 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.46 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 32.8% 19.3% 15.4% 10.6% 20.9% 19.5% Logistic: 8.1% 36.6% 23.0% 14.0% 0.0% 10.2% 4.2% Bayesian: 2.1% 35.5% 18.4% 0.6% 0.2% 12.4% 27.4% Consensus: 7.1% 35.0% 20.2% 10.0% 3.6% 14.5% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 6( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 69 71 73 77 56 45 41 41 42 44 44 18HR AGO 65 64 66 68 70 74 53 42 38 38 39 41 41 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 69 48 37 33 33 34 36 36 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 61 40 29 25 25 26 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT