* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 85 87 86 79 75 72 72 70 69 69 71 V (KT) LAND 75 81 85 72 54 46 42 39 39 37 36 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 74 55 51 55 57 58 57 55 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 13 17 21 25 22 27 26 22 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 0 -3 -1 1 -3 1 0 4 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 124 137 114 107 114 135 121 112 102 105 100 95 117 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.7 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 150 142 138 139 148 152 146 140 148 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 152 149 142 138 140 151 158 152 144 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 67 69 70 72 68 69 63 62 60 62 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 14 12 9 9 10 11 11 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 59 61 59 63 53 26 0 -13 -16 -8 8 200 MB DIV 49 62 81 103 87 19 21 5 64 83 43 -14 -15 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 1 5 11 6 4 5 6 5 1 0 LAND (KM) 188 132 73 -15 -98 130 323 460 588 722 706 736 792 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.3 9.2 9.7 10.2 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.8 82.5 83.1 84.0 84.9 87.1 89.2 91.5 93.8 96.3 98.9 101.4 103.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 25 26 19 1 12 3 5 5 1 23 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -6. -1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 11. 4. 0. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 11.2 81.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.99 6.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.41 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 40.5% 29.4% 21.1% 16.1% 13.3% 14.9% Logistic: 37.5% 51.5% 38.4% 30.9% 0.0% 12.3% 6.9% Bayesian: 32.2% 80.8% 71.8% 18.8% 16.1% 32.3% 3.8% Consensus: 30.3% 57.6% 46.6% 23.6% 10.7% 19.3% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/24/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 85 72 54 46 42 39 39 37 36 36 38 18HR AGO 75 74 78 65 47 39 35 32 32 30 29 29 31 12HR AGO 75 72 71 58 40 32 28 25 25 23 22 22 24 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 47 39 35 32 32 30 29 29 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 85 76 70 66 62 59 59 57 56 56 58