* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 50 49 53 57 60 61 59 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 50 49 53 57 60 61 59 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 51 52 53 53 53 51 49 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 16 20 22 17 16 16 8 2 1 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 1 -1 0 0 6 11 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 131 132 120 117 112 98 93 92 127 158 269 356 162 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.7 28.9 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 148 153 155 150 151 150 150 155 158 159 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 62 60 55 55 54 52 49 49 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 9 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 39 21 7 -17 -27 -15 -11 0 -1 -15 -4 200 MB DIV 66 18 24 32 35 43 33 -7 -3 -40 -26 11 11 700-850 TADV 8 11 9 7 6 6 7 7 7 2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 48 175 299 384 471 623 737 806 882 884 763 695 645 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.6 10.3 11.5 12.4 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.5 88.7 90.1 91.5 94.6 97.6 100.6 103.3 104.9 105.1 105.7 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 11 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 6 6 1 3 4 4 3 10 12 18 27 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -5. -1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -2. 2. 5. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 10.6 86.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 180.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 06 UTC ## ##