* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 52 52 56 58 62 64 64 63 64 62 V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 52 52 56 58 62 64 64 63 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 53 53 53 53 53 53 52 51 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 18 20 18 16 20 16 7 3 11 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 4 2 0 -1 1 8 11 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 141 127 118 112 100 94 87 89 114 318 310 338 253 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.1 28.6 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 149 153 158 152 147 151 149 149 151 156 159 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 58 56 57 56 57 54 48 48 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 21 8 -4 -24 -23 -15 -15 1 -12 -23 -12 200 MB DIV 22 18 32 33 33 39 -1 -3 -33 -39 0 -1 3 700-850 TADV 11 8 7 6 5 7 5 6 4 2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 176 299 378 470 548 714 783 851 907 907 859 786 700 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.0 9.2 9.7 10.3 11.0 12.0 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.8 90.1 91.6 93.1 96.0 98.9 101.7 104.1 105.6 106.2 106.7 107.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 14 14 13 10 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 1 5 6 5 3 4 11 12 11 21 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -3. 1. 3. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 10.5 87.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 12 UTC ## ##