* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 49 52 53 57 58 55 55 58 58 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 49 52 53 57 58 55 55 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 47 46 47 47 47 46 44 41 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 20 19 21 23 20 12 5 12 7 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 3 0 -4 -1 5 12 4 4 3 6 SHEAR DIR 133 116 109 97 90 96 93 108 279 306 315 152 258 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 151 157 155 150 151 148 147 148 149 155 158 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 54 53 55 53 51 44 44 46 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 24 8 -5 -20 -28 -15 -15 -6 -5 -23 -29 -25 200 MB DIV 28 28 37 32 42 17 -17 12 -27 -11 -18 -5 21 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 5 4 7 5 5 2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 296 394 482 554 634 760 849 940 977 958 916 832 736 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.9 9.2 9.7 10.4 11.1 12.1 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 90.0 91.3 92.8 94.4 97.7 100.9 103.7 105.8 107.0 107.5 107.7 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 16 15 12 9 6 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 12 3 5 3 5 4 9 14 11 15 23 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -10. -6. -3. -1. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 5. 5. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.0 88.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 18 UTC ## ##