* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 48 49 52 56 55 54 54 54 55 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 48 49 52 56 55 54 54 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 47 47 47 47 47 45 43 39 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 23 24 24 18 8 12 13 8 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 -1 -3 -2 1 11 9 4 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 122 106 89 87 89 97 100 122 298 310 295 264 270 SST (C) 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 152 156 155 151 147 151 148 146 147 151 153 154 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 51 52 53 50 48 43 45 47 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 9 -5 -20 -27 -27 -15 -21 -8 -23 -34 -33 -28 200 MB DIV 20 10 23 44 37 -13 0 -17 -33 -21 -14 -9 39 700-850 TADV 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 382 474 557 636 735 781 886 967 982 949 887 850 828 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.5 9.2 9.1 8.9 9.0 8.9 9.2 9.8 10.6 11.4 12.1 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 89.9 91.3 92.8 94.3 95.9 98.8 101.8 104.3 106.2 107.2 107.5 108.0 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 11 8 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 4 5 3 5 3 4 10 13 12 17 26 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -12. -10. -6. -4. -2. 0. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.8 89.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 239.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 00 UTC ## ##