* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 53 53 56 58 55 54 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 53 53 56 58 55 54 52 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 52 52 52 52 50 47 42 38 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 19 21 20 18 15 8 22 13 6 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -1 0 1 6 15 5 5 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 104 91 85 95 101 102 121 286 301 305 249 298 235 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 153 151 148 150 147 146 147 149 151 154 156 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.4 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 51 52 51 48 43 41 45 46 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -12 -25 -31 -30 -18 -17 -17 -17 -29 -43 -39 -24 200 MB DIV 7 11 28 27 -1 -23 20 -4 -29 -27 -22 1 22 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 500 576 663 755 782 862 967 991 963 923 881 826 765 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.5 10.4 11.2 11.7 12.5 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 93.2 94.6 96.1 97.7 100.7 103.4 105.6 107.1 107.8 107.9 108.2 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 15 15 14 12 10 7 4 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 6 5 4 9 15 11 18 21 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 5. 4. 2. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.4 91.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 06 UTC ## ##