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Tropical Storm Emily Special Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This Special Advisory is to upgrade the depression to Tropical
Storm Emily, now located just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A Tropical
Storm Warning has also been issued for a portion of the west-
central coast of Florida.

Doppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate
average velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation
center between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a
standard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent
surface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily.  Little change in strength is
expected until landfall occurs this afternoon, followed by slow
weakening as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.

The initial motion estimate is 095/07 kt. There is no change to the
previous forecast track or reasoning.  Emily is expected to make
landfall along the west-central Florida coast within the warning
area by late afternoon, and then continue eastward across the
central Florida peninsula tonight, emerging off of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. However, an isolated waterspout will also be
possible in the coastal waters within the warning area.

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the standard
Intermediate Public advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1200Z 27.7N  83.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 27.7N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 28.3N  80.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 29.8N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 31.6N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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