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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose is better organized this morning with an initial Dvorak
intensity estimate of T3.5 from TAFB. This estimate lies between
a lower SAB T3.0 and CIMSS ADT T4.0. Since the initial Dvorak fix,
SSMIS microwave imagery is showing a well defined center and an
enhanced outer band, a precursor to potentially rapid
intensification. Therefore initial intensity has been increased to
60 knots, slightly higher than TAFB T number.

Initial position estimate is a compromise of TAFB and SAB
satellite fixes and a steady west-northwest motion at 15 knots
should continue on the southwest periphery of extensive subtropical
ridge to the north and northeast of Jose. Satellite imagery does
reveal drier air north of Jose but general trends suggest favorable
upper level outflow and, given considerable distance,
do any not expect any adverse influences from Irma to effect Jose
at this time. Both satellite and model guidance indicate Jose will
continue to exist within a very favorable synoptic regime to
support intensification through 72 hours.

Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is support
for somewhat stronger ridging north of Jose and official track
has subsequently been shifted slightly left/west of previous
forecast track but remains very close to model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 13.1N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 13.7N  46.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 14.3N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 14.8N  52.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 15.4N  55.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 17.3N  58.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 20.2N  61.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 23.6N  64.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecasters Carbin/Bann/Lamers

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