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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

Jose's satellite presentation has improved overnight. Cold cloud
tops of -75C now surround the clearer and more distinct warming eye.
The initial intensity is increased to 110 kt and is based on a
compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity
T-numbers and recent cloud pattern trends.  Some increase in
strength is still possible during the next day or so while the
cyclone remains in a marginally conducive environment. Through the
remainder of the forecast period, however, gradual weakening is
expected due to an increase in northerly wind shear and an intruding
drier more stable thermodynamic environment.  The NHC forecast is
close to the HWRF model through 48 hours, and then closely follows
the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/14
kt.  Large-scale models are quite similar on a subtropical ridge
steering Jose west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, placing
the cyclone very near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and
Saturday.  Through day 5, Jose is expected to move northwestward and
then northward in response to a large amplitude mid-tropospheric
trough approaching the tropical cyclone from the northwest.  The new
NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous package and is
based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 16.0N  55.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 16.6N  57.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 17.3N  59.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 18.5N  61.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 20.0N  63.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 23.5N  67.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 26.4N  68.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 27.9N  67.9W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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