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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017

Jose continues to be an impressive hurricane. Satellite
intensity estimates have been gradually increasing, with TAFB and
SAB coming in at 5.5, ADT at 5.8, and 6.0 from CPHC. Indeed, the
satellite presentation has been slowly improving over the last
several hours as the CDO becomes more symmetric once again, the eye
has warmed and become more distinct, and outflow has improved
somewhat in the southwest quadrant. In deference to the earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission which found winds higher
than the earlier satellite estimates, the initial intensity is kept
at 125 kt, but this could be a bit conservative. Another aircraft
will be in to sample the wind field around 00z.

The initial motion continues to be a fairly steady 310/12. Jose
is pushing northwestward around a mid- and upper-level high located
to the northeast. This general motion is expected to continue for
the next couple of days as the high spreads southward. After
48 hours, the models are in good agreement showing Jose slowing to
a crawl and executing a slow loop well to the east of the Bahamas.
The much slower forward motion will occur as Jose becomes embedded
within a large mid-level anticyclone and steering currents
diminish. The guidance has shifted this loop slightly to the south
and west for this cycle and the official forecast has been adjusted
to be in better alignment with the model consensus.

The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Although the models
insist that southwesterly shear will increase over Jose through the
next 36 hours, the UW-CIMSS analysis shows that Jose is under a
narrow zone of weak shear that appears to be moving westward in
tandem with the hurricane. This should allow Jose to maintain its
intensity in the short term, with gradual weakening expected
thereafter. The official forecast is not as aggressive with
weakening as the previous forecast package.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 19.2N  62.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 20.4N  64.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 22.0N  66.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 23.7N  67.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 25.0N  69.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 26.3N  69.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 26.1N  67.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 25.0N  67.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

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