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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

The satellite presentation of Lee has continued to degrade over the
past six hours.  The IR eye has opened on the northern side, and the
low-level center of circulation appears to be displaced to the
north-northwest of the mid-level center.  Outflow in the northwest
quadrant has also become severely restricted.  A blend of Dvorak
current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the U-W CIMSS at
1800 UTC was used as the basis for the initial intensity of 80 kt,
but it is possible this is generous, given the continued degradation
of the satellite presentation since that time.

No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecast.
Lee is now estimated to be moving toward the north-northeast, or 25
degrees, around 15 kt.  Lee should continue to accelerate toward the
north-northeast to northeast ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude
trough for the next couple of days.  The dynamical models are still
tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast remains close to the
track consensus.

Along this track, increasing shear and cooler SSTs will cause Lee to
continue to weaken.  Between 36 and 48 hours, a combination of
weakening and faster forward motion should cause Lee to open up into
a trough and dissipate.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the
relatively fast weakening trend of DSHP for the first 12 hours, and
is close to the intensity consensus after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 35.1N  55.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 37.4N  53.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 41.2N  47.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 45.6N  39.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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