ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 75.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered over Pamlico Sound near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 75.8 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and it is expected to accelerate further toward the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move off the coast of North Carolina later today and then move away from the coast over the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength until it begins to move away from the coast of North Carolina tonight, and it is not likely to become a tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, and heavy rains are still possible over portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina for the next few hours. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen at sea and become a hurricane-force extratropical low over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday evening. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still possible within the warning area through this afternoon. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches along the northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia coasts into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN