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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...PILAR BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 105.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to El
Roblito, including the Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 105.6 West. Pilar is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A
north-northwest to northwest track is expected for the next couple
of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Pilar will move near
or just west of the coast of Jalisco today and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible
before Pilar nears the coast of Mexico later today and Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.  A Mexican automated station at Chamelacuixmala in
the state of Jalisco recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph
(58 km/h) and a wind gust of 78 mph (125 km/h) at an elevation of
276 ft (84 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over
the western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco, and Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Monday night.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the
southern portion of the warning area this morning, and gradually
spread northward along the Mexican coast through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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