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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...PILAR IMPACTING THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 105.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The southwestern coast of Mexico from Playa Perula northward to El
Roblito, including the Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 105.8 West.  Pilar is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A slower northward
or north-northwestward motion is expected for the next two days.
Along the forecast track, the center of Pilar is forecast to move
along or just west of the coast of Jalisco today and close to or
over the Islas Marias and the coast of Nayarit on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have weakened to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours
and Pilar is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday and
a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over
the western portions of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, and
Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Monday night.  This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the southern
portion of the warning area this afternoon, and will gradually
spread northward along the Mexican coast through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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