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Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...PILAR IMPACTING THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 106.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The southwestern coast of Mexico from Playa Perula northward to El
Roblito, including the Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 106.0 West. Pilar is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A slower
northward motion is expected for the next two days.  Along the
forecast track, the center of Pilar is forecast to move along or
just west of the coast of Jalisco today and close to or over the
Islas Marias and the coast of Nayarit on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours and Pilar is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over
the western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco, and Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Monday night.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the southern
portion of the warning area this afternoon, and will gradually
spread northward along the Mexican coast through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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