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Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...PILAR VERY NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...
...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 106.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Playa Perula northward to El Roblito,
including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 106.2 West.  Pilar is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A slower northward or
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Pilar is forecast to
move along or just west of the coast of the Mexican states of
Nayarit and Sinaloa during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is forecast, and Pilar is expected to become
a tropical depression on Monday and a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over
the western portions of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, and
Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Monday night.  This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in a portion of the
warning area.  These conditions will gradually spread northward
along the Mexican coast tonight and on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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