* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ONE AL012017 04/20/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 53 59 65 69 72 74 73 73
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 53 59 65 69 72 74 73 73
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 23 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 271 264 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 19.3 18.7 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 77 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -59.0 -59.6 -60.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 59 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 161 162 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 29 17 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 9 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1850 1726 1605 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 33.8 35.1 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 39.3 39.5 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 31. 31.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 29. 35. 39. 42. 44. 43. 43.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.8 39.3
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012017 ONE 04/20/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 0.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.7 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.11 0.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.3 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 1.8% 4.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012017 ONE 04/20/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012017 ONE 04/20/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 46 53 59 65 69 72 74 73 73
18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 49 55 61 65 68 70 69 69
12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 42 48 54 58 61 63 62 62
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 37 43 47 50 52 51 51
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT