* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ONE AL012017 04/20/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 47 54 63 72 79 85 89 91 91 90
V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 47 54 63 72 79 85 89 91 91 90
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 40 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 8 7 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 268 253 175 340 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 18.6 18.4 18.1 18.0 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 76 77 77 78 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 70 72 72 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -59.8 -59.9 -59.3 -58.2 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 23 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 164 197 220 240 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 18 41 16 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 10 14 6 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1681 1488 1299 1124 976 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.6 37.6 38.1 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 39.6 41.4 43.2 46.0 48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 18 20 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 30. 29.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 15. 17.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 17. 24. 33. 42. 49. 55. 59. 61. 61. 60.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.5 39.6
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012017 ONE 04/20/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.67 1.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.64 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.13 0.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 87.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.0% 4.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.8%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.0% 5.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012017 ONE 04/20/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012017 ONE 04/20/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 39 47 54 63 72 79 85 89 91 91 90
18HR AGO 30 29 35 43 50 59 68 75 81 85 87 87 86
12HR AGO 30 27 26 34 41 50 59 66 72 76 78 78 77
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 36 45 52 58 62 64 64 63
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT