* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ARLENE AL012017 04/21/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 61 65 71 77 82 85 87 91 91 91
V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 61 65 71 77 82 85 87 91 91 91
V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 281 349 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 17.8 17.4 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 77 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 73 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -60.0 -59.2 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 51 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 192 204 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 8 3 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 11 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1187 986 803 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 39.0 39.7 40.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 43.0 45.6 48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 23 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 25 CX,CY: -17/ 18
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 816 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 14. 19. 23. 25. 29. 31. 33. 32. 31.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 20. 26. 32. 37. 40. 42. 46. 46. 46.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.0 43.0
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.7 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.3 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 55 61 65 71 77 82 85 87 91 91 91
18HR AGO 45 44 49 55 59 65 71 76 79 81 85 85 85
12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 51 57 63 68 71 73 77 77 77
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 45 51 56 59 61 65 65 65
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT