* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ADRIAN EP012017 05/11/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 31 33 40 49 59 68 72 75 76 79
V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 31 33 40 49 59 68 72 75 76 79
V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 47 54 62 72
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 13 10 6 9 8 6 8 11 10 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -5 -2 2 0 -5 -3 -5 -6 -5 -3
SHEAR DIR 105 102 98 112 126 142 152 158 109 134 121 133 124
SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2
POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 169 168 166 165 163 162 162 163 163 163
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.7 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 8 9 7 8 7 9 8 10
700-500 MB RH 74 75 73 74 74 73 76 79 77 73 68 63 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 10 9 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 14
850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 51 53 46 30 35 31 32 30 46 49 53
200 MB DIV 99 84 97 116 142 142 155 108 106 67 90 89 95
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 437 428 428 439 455 422 395 386 370 359 355 355 359
LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5
LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.5 94.2 94.7 95.2 96.0 96.9 97.0 96.7 96.7 97.1 97.1 96.7
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 5 5 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 2
HEAT CONTENT 20 22 25 27 30 37 42 41 39 38 38 38 38
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 10. 19. 29. 38. 42. 45. 46. 49.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 92.9
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.81 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 00 UTC ##
## ����������������������������������������