* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ADRIAN EP012017 05/12/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 32 32 30 28 29 32
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 32 32 30 28 29 32
V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 14 14 16 21 23 19 23 21 17 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -7 -5 -7 -1 -1 3 1 5 6 9
SHEAR DIR 125 127 148 171 195 220 237 242 246 241 248 247 254
SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.7 30.2
POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 165 164 162 160 158 157 159 157 162 168
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 10 8 10 8 10 9 12 9 10
700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 63 68 71 69 67 62 56 52 49 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 33 31 43 33 13 7 7 5 7 15 32
200 MB DIV 128 111 99 95 91 81 81 32 44 27 10 8 43
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -3
LAND (KM) 345 332 322 304 260 158 93 63 53 75 88 169 275
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.5 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.3 14.9 14.4 14.1
LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.2 94.6 94.9 95.1 95.3 95.1 94.9 95.0 95.3 96.2 97.7 99.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 4 6 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 24 19 10 8 8 7 7 11 22 26
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 13. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 9. 12.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 93.9
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/12/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.7 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.79 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/12/17 00 UTC ##
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