* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO EP022017 06/01/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 35 35 38 45 52 55 53 49 49 49
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 35 35 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 36 30 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 6 8 14 12 12 9 13 13 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 0 2 1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 177 177 158 160 215 240 225 230 201 194 194 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 155 157 156 155 155 153 153 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 6 10 9 12 9 12 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 74 74 70 64 56 51 51 52 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 7 6 7 11 15 16 14 12 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 57 57 61 71 75 66 38 39 29 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 129 131 98 104 92 49 20 16 4 21 22 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -4 -4 0 5 0 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 187 156 125 94 63 12 -62 -69 -25 -20 -56 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.3 16.4 16.1 16.1 16.4 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.3 97.1 96.9 96.7 96.3 96.2 96.6 97.2 97.5 97.3 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 20 19 4 35 36 37 39 37 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -7. -7. -2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 8. 15. 22. 25. 23. 19. 19. 19.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 97.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022017 TWO 06/01/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.76 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 29.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022017 TWO 06/01/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##