* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE EP032017 06/12/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 53 57 60 62 64 66 68
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 15 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 85 71 72 67 64 57 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 152 151 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 76 76 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 40 58 76 85 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 65 59 65 79 74 80 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 117 90 54 21 -12 -63 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.0 95.3 95.5 95.7 96.3 96.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 11 31 33 33 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 94.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 7.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 00 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING