* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE EP032017 06/12/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 50 54 57 60 61 63 64 66
V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 34 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 33 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 16 18 16 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 61 54 53 64 76 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 154 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 75 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 55 74 77 79 90 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 82 89 89 80 59 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 51 26 0 -25 -38 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.4 95.6 95.9 96.2 96.5 97.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 16 12 6 33 34 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. 31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.5 95.4
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 21.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING