* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022017 06/19/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 46 49 46 44 40 40 41 42 44
V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 46 48 46 43 39 40 41 42 44
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 42 41 39 36 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 11 15 14 21 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 5 8 6 8 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 251 246 235 221 219 185 194 208 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.5 28.1 27.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 143 144 138 133 141 137 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 153 154 147 139 148 142 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 65 66 69 72 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 13 12 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 17 8 4 17 17 25 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 58 59 89 115 114 71 56 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 3 2 3 16 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 283 320 243 195 32 115 147 77 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.9 10.5 11.7 12.5 13.2 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 53.5 55.3 57.2 58.9 60.7 64.3 67.9 71.7 75.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 19 18 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 25 32 35 20 12 3 26 17 31 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 14. 11. 9. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.2 53.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 3.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 3.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 2.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.55 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 148.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 38.1% 20.4% 9.7% 8.2% 14.2% 15.6% 15.8%
Logistic: 11.4% 37.6% 20.3% 10.4% 9.4% 11.5% 11.4% 19.0%
Bayesian: 4.2% 29.8% 10.5% 2.1% 0.4% 3.1% 2.9% 0.9%
Consensus: 8.0% 35.2% 17.0% 7.4% 6.0% 9.6% 10.0% 11.9%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 TWO 06/19/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 45 46 48 46 43 39 40 41 42 44
18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 42 44 42 39 35 36 37 38 40
12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 37 35 32 28 29 30 31 33
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 26 23 19 20 21 22 24
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT