* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022017 06/19/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 42 41 39 39 40 43 45 47
V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 41 40 38 38 39 41 44 46
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 34 33 36 34 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 4 12 14 11 17 18 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 8 9 10 6 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 267 223 210 216 213 181 212 196 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.3 27.8 27.8 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 144 135 129 130 137 136 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 156 142 134 134 141 140 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -53.6 -54.2 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 65 68 69 70 72 75 72 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 12 11 10 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 24 10 11 15 16 30 35 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 56 87 124 120 80 86 26 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 5 1 -4 2 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 286 180 119 -4 0 124 45 173 339 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.1 9.6 10.2 10.7 11.7 12.5 13.0 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 55.9 57.8 59.8 61.5 63.2 66.4 69.9 73.3 76.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 30 28 11 3 7 9 13 17 27 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.5 55.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.58 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.4% 14.1% 8.2% 6.8% 12.9% 14.1% 16.5%
Logistic: 4.2% 22.6% 9.8% 3.3% 2.3% 4.9% 6.6% 14.9%
Bayesian: 1.0% 7.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 3.6%
Consensus: 3.8% 16.4% 8.5% 3.9% 3.1% 6.1% 7.1% 11.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 TWO 06/19/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 41 41 40 38 38 39 41 44 46
18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 38 37 35 35 36 38 41 43
12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 32 30 30 31 33 36 38
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 25 23 23 24 26 29 31
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT