* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE AL032017 06/19/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 48 48 45 41 35 30 29 21
V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 47 48 48 45 33 29 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 35 33 30 27 27 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 29 32 30 29 24 31 21 22 16 9 15 23 46
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 3 0 0 -2 2 0 -2 12 9 8 3
SHEAR DIR 226 222 219 217 213 236 232 245 214 235 234 213 223
SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.4 24.0 20.8 19.7 21.6
POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 133 134 135 136 134 128 98 83 79 87
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 118 115 115 115 115 112 108 86 75 73 78
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 7 8 6 8 5 9 8 12 4 7
700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 63 60 47 45 43 47 46 57 61 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 23 24 26 24 23 20 16 12 9 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR 41 72 62 59 76 52 73 -4 48 -41 40 -6 1
200 MB DIV 101 124 98 81 93 23 27 -3 21 15 68 90 39
700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 4 1 2 -3 -3 -6 -12 23 46 10
LAND (KM) 302 417 302 244 188 147 108 25 -85 -267 -524 -625 -695
LAT (DEG N) 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 88.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 10 7 7 6 6 4 7 11 12 13 15
HEAT CONTENT 8 4 6 6 6 4 4 1 12 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 1. -5. -12. -16. -16. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 10. 6. 0. -5. -6. -14.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.3 88.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 THREE 06/19/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.05 0.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.81 2.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.51 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.61 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.6% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 THREE 06/19/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 THREE 06/19/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 47 48 48 45 33 29 27 27 27
18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 45 45 42 30 26 24 24 24
12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 39 39 36 24 20 18 18 18
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 30 30 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT