* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE AL032017 06/20/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 44 43 38 35 34 25 24 21
V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 44 37 30 28 27 27 28 28
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 35 34 29 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 23 23 27 27 23 22 13 9 5 23 57 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -1 1 0 0 4 15 7 13 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 234 226 221 231 229 204 215 219 214 222 232 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.6 24.5 21.8 19.9 20.7 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 135 137 137 131 101 86 82 85 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 117 117 117 117 112 88 78 75 78 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 7 5 10 5 14 9 10 2 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 64 59 51 50 51 53 53 57 60 48 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 26 26 25 24 23 21 16 13 13 13 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 98 83 63 59 52 -13 0 28 -33 34 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 73 125 133 34 8 64 8 17 71 88 25 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 5 7 0 1 0 2 0 18 49 27 -2 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 400 340 288 270 251 142 -38 -237 -444 -600 -774 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.4 28.5 30.1 31.9 33.8 35.8 37.9 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 90.6 91.1 91.6 92.2 92.8 93.4 93.8 93.8 93.1 90.4 85.9 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 9 10 12 18 20 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 14 18 4 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. -3. -11. -13. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -11. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 3. -0. -1. -10. -11. -14.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.5 90.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.20 0.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.80 2.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.49 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.6% 10.9% 6.3% 5.4% 10.4% 10.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.4% 5.4% 3.9% 2.1% 1.8% 3.7% 3.9% 0.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 THREE 06/20/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 42 44 37 30 28 27 27 28 28
18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 41 34 27 25 24 24 25 25
12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 36 29 22 20 19 19 20 20
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT