* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CINDY AL032017 06/22/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 42 40 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 45 45 38 34 31 28 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 45 45 38 34 31 28 27 27 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 19 15 10 11 10 14 29 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 5 4 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 209 213 215 206 217 219 226 224 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.0 24.1 21.8 22.6 22.2 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 114 99 89 94 93 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 115 99 88 81 87 86 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 6 11 14 8 8 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 52 50 52 53 51 56 55 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 20 18 16 16 15 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 73 29 1 23 16 -36 -28 5 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 47 53 38 25 23 63 84 1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 5 11 6 0 24 15 18 -32 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 163 64 -36 -150 -266 -425 -613 -327 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.2 30.1 31.2 32.2 34.2 36.0 37.6 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.5 93.6 93.4 93.2 90.7 85.7 79.6 73.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 18 24 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 5 5 18 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. -0. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -18. -29. -30. -32. -33. -36.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.3 93.3
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/22/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 1.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.31 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 236.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.71 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 40.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.8% 10.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.0% 4.6% 3.5% 2.2% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/22/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/22/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 38 34 31 28 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 45 44 37 33 30 27 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 34 31 30 30 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 29 28 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT