* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOUR EP042017 06/25/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 56 67 69 68 63 58 51 45 39
V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 56 67 69 68 63 58 51 45 39
V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 52 58 61 57 49 41 34 29 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 8 7 6 7 2 3 6 7 7 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 3 8 3 4 3 3
SHEAR DIR 13 12 41 74 73 47 77 291 127 194 202 202 193
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.0 25.6 24.3 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.8 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 147 143 134 119 106 95 91 87 88 84
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 78 77 74 72 70 65 61 56 50 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 19 7 5 7 5 9 36 37 37 11 11 11 18
200 MB DIV 87 58 53 62 58 21 14 -14 0 -21 -16 -20 -34
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -8 0 -4 0 4
LAND (KM) 257 253 252 248 242 250 287 403 387 418 468 528 610
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 17.2 18.3 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 20.8 20.9
LONG(DEG W) 100.4 101.3 102.3 103.2 104.1 105.8 107.5 109.3 111.2 112.7 113.8 115.1 116.5
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 7 6 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 22 21 18 15 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 32. 34. 33. 28. 23. 16. 10. 4.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 100.4
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 FOUR 06/25/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 FOUR 06/25/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##