* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORA EP042017 06/25/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 65 70 76 79 76 71 64 56 49 42
V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 65 70 76 79 76 71 64 56 49 42
V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 64 68 72 70 63 55 47 39 33 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 3 1 7 4 3 2 2 6 6 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 1 -1 4 5 3
SHEAR DIR 28 40 48 59 119 99 110 319 344 176 190 179 180
SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.3 25.0 24.1 23.5 23.2 23.1 22.7 23.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 147 143 138 126 112 103 97 93 92 88 91
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -51.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 75 74 72 72 66 67 61 60 54 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 15 16 17 17 19 17 17 15 13 11 10
850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 13 10 10 22 33 17 29 6 -5 -5 16
200 MB DIV 54 46 68 71 48 26 4 11 -9 -8 -19 -24 -8
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 1 0 -1 -8 -4 -2 0 1 3
LAND (KM) 266 263 259 242 246 260 367 433 421 492 596 692 831
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.0 19.5
LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.2 103.2 104.1 105.0 106.8 108.5 110.2 111.8 113.5 115.1 116.6 118.0
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 21 19 14 10 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 25. 31. 34. 31. 26. 19. 11. 4. -3.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 101.3
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/25/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 4.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 9.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 3.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 5.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.2 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.4 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 23.9% 48.6% 35.4% 27.6% 20.0% 26.6% 21.5% 10.2%
Logistic: 45.3% 78.8% 64.6% 49.8% 34.8% 67.6% 39.3% 2.3%
Bayesian: 18.0% 58.2% 37.2% 25.4% 18.7% 7.6% 1.4% 0.0%
Consensus: 29.1% 61.9% 45.7% 34.3% 24.5% 33.9% 20.7% 4.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/25/17 12 UTC ##