* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORA EP042017 06/26/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 85 85 84 76 68 57 46 36 28 25 23
V (KT) LAND 75 82 85 85 84 76 68 57 46 36 28 25 23
V (KT) LGEM 75 81 83 80 76 65 55 46 38 31 26 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 7 5 0 2 4 5 8 5 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -2 -2 1 1 1 3 3 3 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 147 73 59 51 83 187 188 159 158 160 147 N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.4 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 138 130 123 117 113 106 102 98 95 92 92 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 68 70 65 66 60 59 51 44 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 16 14 14 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 28 34 30 19 24 10 -1 -11 12 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 46 36 45 23 -11 -1 -5 -12 -17 -17 -29 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 1 -4 -4 -3 -5 -1 0 1 2 5 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 260 279 332 388 449 432 489 564 624 717 847 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.1 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.8 107.8 108.7 109.6 111.3 113.0 114.4 115.8 117.2 118.8 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -25. -26. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 10. 9. 1. -7. -18. -29. -39. -47. -50. -52.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 105.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 5.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 5.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 30.2% 27.6% 22.1% 18.9% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 37.3% 24.2% 10.8% 5.3% 1.8% 7.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 6.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 24.5% 18.0% 11.2% 8.2% 6.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##