* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORA EP042017 06/28/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 35 28 24 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 0 1 4 6 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 3 3 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 131 171 183 179 181 184 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.3 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 103 99 97 94 89 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 66 63 59 58 54 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 1 -15 -10 -15 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -3 -3 1 -4 -13 -7 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 454 488 538 543 558 637 735 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.2 116.0 117.4 118.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 6. 5. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -27. -36. -38. -38. -37. -37. -36. -36.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.6 112.6
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/28/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 3.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 2.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 -0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 184.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.67 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 10.5% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 3.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/28/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##