* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOUR AL042017 07/06/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 46 50 51 53 54 56 59
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 46 50 51 53 54 56 59
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 37 37 38 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 6 1 4 8 10 17 18 28 21 22 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 9 5 3 0 0 2 -2 1 -1 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 24 49 22 262 279 264 282 277 292 292 298 N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.3 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 124 125 129 134 133 135 137 137 142 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 126 128 131 134 131 131 131 129 133 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 54 50 48 46 50 50 54 56 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 7 7 6 5 6 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -20 -10 -7 -2 -4 -13 -25 -36 -40 -48 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 5 -2 6 1 8 31 35 22 11 -3 12 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 1 11 13 14 10 16 9 3 0 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1445 1351 1269 1203 1173 1085 918 709 493 419 435 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.1 16.3 17.5 19.0 20.8 22.0 22.8 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.4 45.2 47.1 49.1 52.7 56.0 59.0 61.8 64.5 67.3 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 19 20 19 17 17 16 15 14 14 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 6 12 20 9 11 34 28 27 14 25 37 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 25. 26. 28. 29. 31. 34.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 41.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.90 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.32 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 166.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.4% 11.5% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.1% 8.4% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 4.7% 8.5% 8.2%
Bayesian: 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.7% 8.0% 5.4% 3.1% 0.2% 1.6% 6.9% 2.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/06/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 41 46 50 51 53 54 56 59
18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 38 43 47 48 50 51 53 56
12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 37 41 42 44 45 47 50
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 28 32 33 35 36 38 41
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT