* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOUR AL042017 07/06/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 47 49 50 52 55 57
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 47 49 50 52 55 57
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 36 37 38 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 2 4 7 6 14 13 24 23 25 15 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 4 2 1 -2 4 -2 1 0 -2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 55 111 207 260 268 286 283 280 294 282 299 N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 128 131 134 136 137 139 137 140 142 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 131 134 136 138 136 133 129 131 132 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 51 49 49 52 53 57 58 58 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -21 -12 -8 -3 -4 0 -16 -34 -40 -53 -55 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 0 6 4 11 41 34 33 18 8 10 -3 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 8 11 13 9 8 9 4 1 -4 -1 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1279 1192 1124 1090 1082 875 697 411 308 377 402 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 16.4 18.1 19.5 20.7 21.9 23.2 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 44.0 46.0 48.0 49.9 51.8 55.3 59.1 62.0 64.2 66.4 68.9 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 19 18 19 18 13 12 12 13 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 10 16 9 14 30 33 23 24 35 56 23 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 29. 31. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. 27. 30. 32.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 44.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 2.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 170.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.9% 12.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.7% 11.9% 6.0% 2.5% 2.0% 3.2% 10.7% 11.8%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.6% 9.4% 6.3% 3.5% 0.7% 1.1% 8.0% 3.9%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/06/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 47 49 50 52 55 57
18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 42 44 46 47 49 52 54
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 37 39 41 42 44 47 49
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 31 33 34 36 39 41
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT