* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOUR AL042017 07/07/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 46 50 53 56 58 61
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 46 50 53 56 58 61
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 9 13 16 20 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 1 -2 0 4 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 214 256 275 257 265 288 284 309 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 133 134 134 136 139 138 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 134 135 134 135 134 131 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 46 47 47 48 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -6 -8 -8 -7 -10 -22 -42 -52 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 0 3 28 22 29 25 12 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 15 15 10 11 14 14 6 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1199 1165 1155 1042 945 749 456 366 415 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 18.6 20.3 21.6 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.7 51.5 53.3 55.0 58.6 61.9 64.8 67.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 19 16 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 9 13 38 32 40 24 17 33 33 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 36.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 47.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.83 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.3% 11.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.5% 21.8% 12.0% 9.4% 8.1% 7.9% 8.1% 10.7%
Bayesian: 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Consensus: 3.6% 12.8% 8.1% 5.5% 2.7% 2.7% 6.4% 3.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/07/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 46 50 53 56 58 61
18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 41 44 48 51 54 56 59
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 36 39 43 46 49 51 54
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 28 31 35 38 41 43 46
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT