* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 67 72 76 75 71 64 53 44 36 28
V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 67 72 76 75 71 64 53 44 36 28
V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 66 70 72 69 60 50 42 34 29 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 4 10 12 7 5 4 7 8 10 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -6 -9 -7 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 245 283 208 141 147 135 168 119 128 214 243 252 261
SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.4 24.8 23.4 22.4 21.8 20.8 20.1 19.9
POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 143 139 137 127 111 96 85 79 68 61 59
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 66 67 64 63 57 55 50 47 45 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 21 23 24 24 24 23 20 17 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 32 33 23 30 30 27 46 45 41 26 12
200 MB DIV 76 53 47 58 37 50 21 12 -22 -7 -12 -12 -20
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -3 0 -5 -7 -4 0 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 1049 1057 1021 972 930 875 851 830 847 830 825 859 910
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.1 15.8 17.3 18.7 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.7 25.8
LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.9 117.3 118.5 119.6 120.7 121.8 122.9 123.9
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 23 18 15 14 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -3. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 7. 3. -1. -3. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 25. 21. 14. 3. -6. -14. -22.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.3 112.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 10.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 5.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 201.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.65 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.2 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 28.2% 49.4% 38.7% 30.2% 21.0% 27.7% 19.9% 6.3%
Logistic: 34.6% 39.6% 30.2% 23.7% 14.0% 17.4% 3.5% 0.3%
Bayesian: 21.0% 41.6% 16.0% 8.3% 3.7% 4.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Consensus: 27.9% 43.5% 28.3% 20.7% 12.9% 16.4% 7.9% 2.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##