* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EUGENE EP052017 07/10/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 69 64 57 45 36 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 80 75 69 64 57 45 36 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 80 74 68 61 55 44 36 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 3 5 7 6 7 7 9 10 14 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 7 7 4 -1 0 0 -2 2 0 2 -1
SHEAR DIR 205 232 253 238 247 278 254 235 193 191 150 161 171
SST (C) 26.1 25.3 24.6 24.0 23.5 22.8 21.8 21.0 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.2 20.1
POT. INT. (KT) 124 116 108 102 97 89 78 70 65 64 62 60 59
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 64 63 59 57 59 51 51 47 46 40 36 31 28
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 21 21 20 19 17 15 13 11 8 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 20 30 39 47 39 20 14 -1 -19 -31 -53
200 MB DIV 10 3 -2 -11 -25 -19 -9 -2 -4 -4 13 1 6
700-850 TADV -3 -8 -9 -7 -6 -1 -1 5 1 3 -2 -1 -3
LAND (KM) 844 815 799 792 796 772 753 763 801 812 819 829 849
LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.6 23.7 24.8 25.9 26.9 27.7 28.2 28.5
LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.4 118.0 118.6 119.1 120.1 121.0 121.9 122.8 123.5 124.0 124.8 125.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -24. -31. -37. -40. -41. -43. -47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -18. -18. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -23. -35. -44. -51. -59. -66. -74. -80. -86.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.4 116.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 515.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.27 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##